──── BLOOMBERG TERMINAL // SESSION 01 ────

MARKETS
/ 400 YEARS

A history of stock exchanges, from Amsterdam to algorithms

FROM 1602   //   TO PRESENT   //   13 SLIDES

QUICK QUOTES
SPX
5,184.32 ▲ 0.42%
NDX
18,302.10 ▲ 0.61%
DJI
39,512.84 ▼ 0.18%
VIX
14.22 ▼ 1.10%

PRESS  →  OR SPACE TO BEGIN

──── HISTORY // ORIGINS ────

1602

DUTCH EAST INDIA COMPANY (VOC)

The Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie issues the world's first publicly traded shares on the Amsterdam Beurs. Anyone with capital can buy a piece of the company — and sell it again.

  • First permanent stock exchange in human history
  • Originated dividends, share certificates, secondary trading
  • Pioneered short-selling (Isaac Le Maire, 1609) — promptly banned
  • VOC paid an annual dividend averaging ~18% for nearly 200 years

"The first multinational corporation in the world."

VOC // SHARE PRICE (INDEXED)
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──── HISTORY // FIRST MANIAS ────

1720

SOUTH SEA & MISSISSIPPI BUBBLES

Two simultaneous speculative manias — one in London, one in Paris — teach Europe what a bubble is. Both schemes promised fortunes from colonial trade. Both ended in ruin.

  • South Sea Co. shares: £128 → £1,000 → £124 in months
  • John Law's Mississippi Co. wipes out the French monetary system
  • Isaac Newton loses ~£20,000 (millions today)
  • "I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of men."
SOUTH SEA CO. // 1720
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Pump. Dump. Repeat — for the next 300 years.
──── HISTORY // NYSE ORIGIN ────

1792

THE BUTTONWOOD AGREEMENT

24 stockbrokers gather under a buttonwood (sycamore) tree at 68 Wall Street. They sign a 400-word agreement to trade only with each other and charge a fixed 0.25% commission. The New York Stock Exchange is born.

  • Originally just 5 securities traded
  • Moved indoors to the Tontine Coffee House in 1793
  • Renamed "New York Stock & Exchange Board" in 1817
  • Today: ~$25T market cap of listed companies
68 WALL ST // BUTTONWOOD
──── HISTORY // PANIC ────

1907

THE PANIC — AND J.P. MORGAN

A failed corner on United Copper triggers runs on trust companies. The NYSE nearly closes. There is no central bank. The U.S. financial system is held together by one 70-year-old man in a library on Madison Avenue.

  • NYSE down -50% from previous year's peak
  • J.P. Morgan locks bankers in his library; refuses to release them until they pledge $25M
  • Rescues the Trust Company of America & Knickerbocker
  • Aftermath: 1913 Federal Reserve Act — America gets a central bank
DOW // 1906 — 1908
EVENTYEAR
Panic of 19071907
Aldrich-Vreeland Act1908
Jekyll Island meeting1910
Federal Reserve Act1913
──── HISTORY // THE GREAT CRASH ────

1929

BLACK TUESDAY — OCT 29

The roaring 20s meet a brick wall. Margin debt has tripled. Shoeshine boys give stock tips. On Black Thursday and Black Tuesday, the floor of the NYSE becomes pandemonium.

  • Sept 3, 1929 peak: DJIA 381.17
  • Black Tuesday: 16.4M shares traded — record stood 40 years
  • July 8, 1932 trough: DJIA 41.22
  • -89.2% peak-to-trough — recovery took until 1954
  • Triggers the Glass-Steagall Act & the SEC (1934)
DJIA // 1928 — 1932
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-89.2% peak → trough
──── HISTORY // INDEX REVOLUTION ────

1975

JOHN BOGLE & THE INDEX FUND

After being fired from Wellington in 1974, John Bogle founds Vanguard. In 1976 he launches the First Index Investment Trust — mocked at the time as "Bogle's Folly." It tracks the S&P 500. Costs almost nothing. The whole industry laughs.

  • Premise: most active managers don't beat the index after fees
  • 1976 launch raised only $11M vs $150M target
  • By 2024: index funds hold >50% of U.S. fund assets
  • Vanguard AUM today: ~$9 trillion

"Don't look for the needle. Buy the haystack." — J. Bogle

> YOUTUBE: john bogle index funds

FEES // ACTIVE vs INDEX (bps)
A 1% fee over 40 yrs = ~28% of final wealth lost.
──── HISTORY // BLACK MONDAY ────

1987

BLACK MONDAY — OCT 19

The Dow drops -22.6% in a single day — still the largest one-day percentage drop in U.S. history. There was no obvious news catalyst. Just a feedback loop.

  • "Portfolio insurance" auto-sold futures as prices fell
  • Selling triggered more selling — first algorithmic crash
  • Markets recovered most losses within 2 years
  • Birth of "circuit breakers" — mandatory trading halts
DJIA // OCT 1987 (CANDLE)
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──── HISTORY // DOT-COM BUST ────

2000

THE NASDAQ COLLAPSES

Companies with no revenue trade at billions. Pets.com, Webvan, eToys, theGlobe.com. Greenspan warns of "irrational exuberance" in 1996 — four years too early. The bubble peaks March 2000.

  • NASDAQ peak: 5,048 (Mar 10, 2000)
  • NASDAQ trough: 1,114 (Oct 9, 2002)
  • -78% drawdown — took 15 yrs to reclaim 5,000
  • Survivors: Amazon (-94% drawdown), Apple, Cisco
NASDAQ // 1995 — 2003
TICKERPEAKDRAWDOWN
PETS$14-100%
CSCO$80-89%
AMZN$107-94%
YHOO$118-97%
──── HISTORY // GFC ────

2008

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

U.S. housing prices fall. Securitized mortgages reveal hidden leverage. Lehman files for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008 — the largest in U.S. history. The system seizes.

  • Bear Stearns rescued by JPM at $2/share (Mar 2008)
  • Lehman Brothers: $639B in assets — bankrupt
  • AIG bailout: $182B
  • TARP: $700B authorized
  • S&P 500: -56.8% peak to trough (Oct 2007 → Mar 2009)
S&P 500 // 2007 — 2010
-56.8%
peak to trough
──── HISTORY // ALGORITHMIC ERA ────

2010s+

HFT, ETFs, AND THE PASSIVE TIDE

Trading goes electronic, then algorithmic, then microsecond. The "Flash Crash" of May 6, 2010 wipes ~$1T off U.S. equities in minutes — and recovers most of it before lunch.

  • ~50% of U.S. equity volume is HFT
  • Co-location, fiber races, microwave towers between NYC & CHI
  • ETF AUM: $0.8T (2010) → $11T+ (2024)
  • Passive funds overtake active in U.S. equities (~2019)
  • Retail returns via Robinhood, GME/AMC meme rallies (2021)
U.S. EQUITY ASSETS // PASSIVE vs ACTIVE
█▇▆▅▄▃   ▃▄▅▆▇█
──── SUMMARY // LESSONS ────

FOUR CENTURIES,
ONE PATTERN.

LESSON 01
BUBBLES REPEAT

Tulips, South Sea, railroads, radio, dot-com, crypto. The asset changes, the psychology doesn't. Leverage + a story = mania.

LESSON 02
TIME > TIMING

$1 in U.S. stocks (1900) = ~$70,000 today (real terms). Missing the 10 best days cuts that by ~half. Sit still.

LESSON 03
FEES COMPOUND

A 1% fee over 40 years quietly erases ~28% of your final wealth. The house always wins, until you stop paying it.

LESSON 04
DIVERSIFY OR PERISH

Of the 1900 Dow components, almost none survive intact today. The index lives forever; companies don't.

──── EOF // REFERENCES ────

FURTHER READING

BOOKS
  • Manias, Panics, and Crashes — Charles Kindleberger
  • A Random Walk Down Wall Street — Burton Malkiel
  • The Intelligent Investor — Benjamin Graham
  • Devil Take the Hindmost — Edward Chancellor
  • When Genius Failed — Roger Lowenstein
  • Liar's Poker / The Big Short — Michael Lewis
  • Common Sense on Mutual Funds — John C. Bogle
VIDEO
END OF SESSION

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