FROM 1602 // TO PRESENT // 13 SLIDES
PRESS → OR SPACE TO BEGIN
The Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie issues the world's first publicly traded shares on the Amsterdam Beurs. Anyone with capital can buy a piece of the company — and sell it again.
"The first multinational corporation in the world."
Two simultaneous speculative manias — one in London, one in Paris — teach Europe what a bubble is. Both schemes promised fortunes from colonial trade. Both ended in ruin.
24 stockbrokers gather under a buttonwood (sycamore) tree at 68 Wall Street. They sign a 400-word agreement to trade only with each other and charge a fixed 0.25% commission. The New York Stock Exchange is born.
A failed corner on United Copper triggers runs on trust companies. The NYSE nearly closes. There is no central bank. The U.S. financial system is held together by one 70-year-old man in a library on Madison Avenue.
| EVENT | YEAR |
|---|---|
| Panic of 1907 | 1907 |
| Aldrich-Vreeland Act | 1908 |
| Jekyll Island meeting | 1910 |
| Federal Reserve Act | 1913 |
The roaring 20s meet a brick wall. Margin debt has tripled. Shoeshine boys give stock tips. On Black Thursday and Black Tuesday, the floor of the NYSE becomes pandemonium.
After being fired from Wellington in 1974, John Bogle founds Vanguard. In 1976 he launches the First Index Investment Trust — mocked at the time as "Bogle's Folly." It tracks the S&P 500. Costs almost nothing. The whole industry laughs.
"Don't look for the needle. Buy the haystack." — J. Bogle
The Dow drops -22.6% in a single day — still the largest one-day percentage drop in U.S. history. There was no obvious news catalyst. Just a feedback loop.
Companies with no revenue trade at billions. Pets.com, Webvan, eToys, theGlobe.com. Greenspan warns of "irrational exuberance" in 1996 — four years too early. The bubble peaks March 2000.
| TICKER | PEAK | DRAWDOWN |
|---|---|---|
| PETS | $14 | -100% |
| CSCO | $80 | -89% |
| AMZN | $107 | -94% |
| YHOO | $118 | -97% |
U.S. housing prices fall. Securitized mortgages reveal hidden leverage. Lehman files for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008 — the largest in U.S. history. The system seizes.
Trading goes electronic, then algorithmic, then microsecond. The "Flash Crash" of May 6, 2010 wipes ~$1T off U.S. equities in minutes — and recovers most of it before lunch.
Tulips, South Sea, railroads, radio, dot-com, crypto. The asset changes, the psychology doesn't. Leverage + a story = mania.
$1 in U.S. stocks (1900) = ~$70,000 today (real terms). Missing the 10 best days cuts that by ~half. Sit still.
A 1% fee over 40 years quietly erases ~28% of your final wealth. The house always wins, until you stop paying it.
Of the 1900 Dow components, almost none survive intact today. The index lives forever; companies don't.
// MARKETS_400Y >